Bitcoin’s $122K Dream Crumbles: Wyckoff Warns of $95K Reversal as ‘Ugly’ Candle Sparks Altcoin Rotation
A rejected rally above $122K and a telltale “ugly” price candle have dashed hopes of a clean march to $100K. Wyckoff analysis now points to a potential drop to $95K, while altcoins quietly steal the spotlight ahead of the US CPI report.
The Bull Run on Pause: Bitcoin’s Breakout Breaks Down
Just as Bitcoin seemed poised to reignite its march toward six figures, the momentum sputtered—hard. A dramatic rejection at $122,000, captured in a single “ugly” daily candle, has traders questioning whether the bull run is pausing… or peaking.
That candle tells a story of false breakout and swift capitulation—price surged, touched new highs, then collapsed back into its prior range. No follow-through. No conviction. Just cold, hard distribution.
And now, after months of relentless upward pressure, the charts are whispering a dangerous word: reversal.
Wyckoff Sounding the Alarm: Distribution Phase Activated
One of the most compelling analyses comes from trader ZAYK Charts, who applied the classic Wyckoff method to diagnose Bitcoin’s current condition. The verdict? We may have already entered the distribution phase—the quiet, treacherous period where smart money exits and retail rushes in.
According to Wyckoff theory, market cycles follow four stages:
- Accumulation – Smart money buys low (March–April 2025)
- Markup – Public joins, price surges (rally to $122K)
- Distribution – Whales sell, momentum weakens (now)
- Markdown – Panic sets in, price drops
Right now, all signs point to Stage 3:
- Price is stuck in a tight, sideways range
- RSI shows bearish divergence—higher highs in price, lower highs in momentum
- Volume is fading on upswings, spiking on downswings
“If distribution confirms,” warns ZAYK, “the next phase could be a Mark-Down toward the $95,000 zone.”
That $95K level isn’t arbitrary. It was a critical battleground between November 2024 and May 2025—support, resistance, and emotional anchor all in one.
“This Is Ugly for Bitcoin” — Altcoins Seize the Moment
The blunt assessment came from trader Mikybull Crypto, who summed up the mood in one viral post:
“THIS IS UGLY FOR BITCOIN. BACK TO THE RANGE… WHICH IS SUPER GOOD FOR ALTS.”
And he’s right.
When Bitcoin stalls, capital rotates. Altcoins, which had been lagging during BTC’s dominance phase, are now seeing renewed buying interest. Ethereum, Solana, and even mid-cap DeFi tokens are catching bids as traders hunt for alpha.
Bitcoin’s dominance (BTC.D) has plateaued—another red flag for pure BTC holders. If the king stalls, the court rises.
The CME Gap Looms: $117K as a Magnetic Trap?
Amid the bearish whispers, some traders are holding out hope. Daan Crypto Trades points to the lingering CME futures gap near $117,000—a zone where institutional orders are likely clustered.
Gaps like this act as gravitational pulls in price action. If Bitcoin retests $117K with a long wick and holds, it could set up a fresh long entry—especially if supported by the 4-hour 200-period moving averages.
But here’s the catch: this isn’t a bullish signal. It’s a retracement play. Even in this scenario, the trend is seen as corrective, not explosive.
And with the US July CPI report dropping imminently, volatility is guaranteed. A hotter-than-expected number could spook risk assets, accelerating any markdown. A soft print? That might buy Bitcoin time.
What’s Next: $95K or Rebound?
The path forward is split:
- Bull Case: Bitcoin reclaims $120K, fills the CME gap, and resumes the rally toward $150K+ in late 2025.
- Bear Case: Distribution deepens, $100K fails as support, and price drops to $95K–$92K—a retest of the spring consolidation zone.
Either way, the narrative has shifted.
The assumption that “BTC only goes up” is being tested.
Traders are now watching:
- RSI and volume for confirmation of momentum loss
- On-chain outflows from exchanges (accumulation signal)
- Altcoin/BTC pair strength
- Post-CPI market reaction
For now, caution is king.
Final Takeaway: When the King Stumbles, the Court Moves
Bitcoin’s brief flirtation with $122K didn’t end in triumph—it ended in retreat. And in crypto, how a rally dies matters more than how it lived.
The Wyckoff framework suggests we’re in the quiet eye of the storm: the markup is over, distribution is underway, and the markdown may be just around the corner.
But markets are not fate. They’re psychology.
If CPI data calms inflation fears, Bitcoin could rebound.
If altcoins continue to outperform, the rotation may become a revolution.
Until then, the $95K zone isn’t just a price level.
It’s a stress test for the entire bull thesis.
