Avalanche (AVAX) Breaks Free — Is a Run to $120 Next?
Avalanche has broken out of a long-term descending channel and is now rebounding from a critical support zone. With technical structure aligning and volume backing the move, AVAX could be gearing up for its biggest rally since 2021.
The Calm Before the Storm: AVAX Awakens From a Multi-Year Slumber
After months of quiet consolidation, Avalanche (AVAX) is flashing signs of a major awakening.
Two days ago, the price broke out of a descending channel that had capped rallies since late 2021. Now, it’s staging a strong rebound from the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle on the weekly chart—a pattern that, if confirmed, could unleash one of the most significant moves in AVAX’s history.
Analyst Jonathan Carter calls it a “major breakout setup,” and the numbers back him up.
The Symmetrical Triangle: A Coiled Spring on the Weekly Chart
The big picture tells the most compelling story.
On the weekly timeframe, AVAX has been trading within a massive symmetrical triangle since late 2021:
- Upper trendline: A descending resistance that blocked every major rally
- Lower trendline: An ascending support that halted every deep drop since 2023
- Current position: Price is bouncing off the lower edge, near the 50-week moving average—a classic institutional support zone
This pattern is a textbook compression play—a coiled spring ready to snap. And now, with momentum building, the direction appears bullish.
Volume analysis shows a dense trading zone between $12 and $17, forming a solid base for this rebound. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is climbing into neutral territory—not yet overbought, meaning there’s room for acceleration.
A confirmed breakout above the triangle’s upper resistance could trigger a vertical move, with long-term technical targets pointing to $100–$120.
Price Targets: From $30 to $120 — How High Can AVAX Go?
Carter’s projection breaks the rally into three phases:
- Short-Term Target: $30
The first major resistance lies here. A close above this level would confirm strength and likely pull in algorithmic and institutional buyers. - Mid-Term Target: $55
This zone aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2021–2023 downtrend. Breaking here would signal a full shift in market structure. - Long-Term Target: $120
The ultimate prize. This isn’t speculation—it’s where the measured move of the symmetrical triangle lands. A breakout above the pattern’s apex could propel AVAX into new all-time high territory.
To reach $120, AVAX would need sustained momentum, broader market support, and continued ecosystem growth. But in bull markets, foundational Layer 1s often lead the charge.
Why This Isn’t Just Technical Hype
The chart tells one story. The fundamentals tell another.
Avalanche isn’t just riding the wave—it’s building the ocean. Recent developments include:
- Enterprise subnet adoption by major brands and governments
- Quboid’s loyalty program integration (turning AVAX into a real-world engagement engine)
- Strong DeFi and NFT activity on its C-Chain and subnets
- Low fees, high speed, and EVM compatibility—a trifecta that keeps developers building
While competitors struggle with congestion or centralization concerns, Avalanche’s subnet architecture offers scalability without compromise. Each custom blockchain shares security while operating independently—ideal for enterprises, gaming, and financial apps.
What Could Go Wrong?
Of course, no rally is guaranteed. Risks remain:
- A broader crypto market pullback (especially if Bitcoin stalls)
- Failure to hold above $17 could invalidate the breakout
- Low volume on breakout attempts could signal a false move
Traders should watch:
- Weekly close above $30 for confirmation
- Sustained volume on upward moves
- On-chain activity to ensure demand is real, not just speculative
