$6B Bitcoin & Ethereum Options Expire Amid Volatility: Max Pain at $117K for BTC, $4K for ETH

Market in the Crosshairs: $6B in Crypto Options Expire
The crypto derivatives market is undergoing a major reset as nearly $6 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expired today—triggering a wave of position adjustments, profit-taking, and renewed speculation about short-term price direction.

According to Deribit, the dominant crypto options exchange, $4.78 billion in BTC options (over 40,000 contracts) and $1.33 billion in ETH options (288,000 contracts) lapsed, marking one of the most significant expiry events of the 2025 bull cycle.

These events often act as market catalysts, with price frequently gravitating toward the “max pain” strike price—the level at which the most options expire worthless, maximizing losses for holders.

Bitcoin: Max Pain at $117,000, BTC Trading Above at $118,995
Bitcoin’s max pain level was set at $117,000, and as of expiry, BTC is trading slightly above that at $118,995 (CoinMarketCap), suggesting a favorable outcome for short-term bulls.

The put-call ratio (PCR) for today’s BTC options stands at 0.90, indicating more call (bullish) volume than puts—a sign of underlying confidence among traders despite recent macro shocks.

With the price above max pain, many short-dated puts expired worthless, potentially triggering a short squeeze or renewed long positioning in the coming sessions.

Ethereum: Max Pain at $4,000, But ETH Trades at $4,629
Ethereum’s max pain level sits at $4,000, well below its current price of $4,629, meaning the vast majority of call holders are in the green.

This setup typically leads to bullish momentum, as traders who bought upside calls realize profits and reinvest. However, sentiment remains more cautious than for BTC.

Analysts note that Ethereum’s implied volatility (IV) remains high—around 70%—signaling that traders expect significant price swings ahead. In contrast, BTC’s short- and medium-term IV remains below 35%, reflecting greater stability.

Macro Headwinds and Market Reaction
Today’s expiry comes on the heels of a surprise market correction triggered by hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 3.7% year-over-year, the highest since March 2022, while core CPI climbed back above 3%.

This has delayed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, leading to a brief sell-off in risk assets.

Yet, the options market has held firm. As Greeks.live noted on X:

“BTC’s IV remains low… while ETH’s main term IV remains as high as 70%, matching the current potential volatility expectations for ETH.”

This divergence suggests traders see Ethereum as more volatile and speculative in the near term—possibly due to altseason dynamics and upcoming ecosystem upgrades.

Deribit Hits Record $10.9B Daily Volume
The scale of today’s activity is historic. Deribit reported $10.9 billion in 24-hour trading volume—the first time it has crossed the $10 billion threshold—highlighting the growing maturity and institutional depth of the crypto derivatives market.

High options volume often precedes increased spot market activity, as hedge funds, market makers, and retail traders rebalance after expiry.

What’s Next?
Traders are now eyeing key resistance levels:

• BTC: $122,000 – seen as a potential local top
• ETH: $4,700 – where profit-taking may intensify

With the expiry behind us, the path is clear for a new directional move. Whether it’s a breakout or a pullback, volatility is likely to return.